I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board. My research focuses on U.S. labor markets, macroeconomics, and their trends and cyclical interaction. I am interested in questions about labor market polarization, labor market flows, forecasting, as well as studying current labor market developments.
This my personal website. Any views expressed on this site are my own and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or its staff. My official website is here.
Ph.D., Economics, 2008
University of California, San Diego
BA, Economics, 2000
University of California, Berkeley
Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, unemployment returned to its pre-pandemic low, and the estimated underlying longer-run unemployment rate appeared largely unchanged. However, economic disruptions pushed up the short-run noninflationary rate substantially, as high as 6%. This primer examines these different measures of the natural rate of unemployment and discusses how they can provide useful insights for policymakers.
We develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs relate to these classes of economic activity.