Across The Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession

We develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs relate to these classes of economic activity.

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup

The markup of price over marginal cost increases in response to a positive shock to demand and TFP but decreases in response to an investment-specific technology shock. In contrast, how the markup is measured matters for its unconditional cyclicality.

The Dynamics of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach

We use matched individual-level CPS data to study the decline in middle-wage routine occupations during the last 40 years, and determine how the associated labor market flows have evolved. The decline in employment in these occupations can be …

The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market

This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models.

Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending

An increase in government demand raises output and hours in manufacturing industries, lowers real product wages and labor productivity, and has no effect on the markup.