Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

A line graph showing the civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 16 years or older, in millions (ratio scale) has two lines, "Harmonized" (dashed orange) and "Published" (solid blue), both steadily increasing from under 240 million in 2010 to over 270 million in 2025, with the "Published" line generally slightly higher than the "Harmonized" line after 2012. Civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 16 years or older

Abstract

The official labor force statistics often exhibit discontinuities in January, when updated population estimates are incorporated into the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the current year but are not revised backwards through history. We construct harmonized population estimates spanning five decades and produce new sampling weights for the CPS microdata that are benchmarked to these estimates. Using these weights, we estimate harmonized labor force statistics that reflect the latest available information about the population and its characteristics. The harmonized labor force series are free from the discontinuities in the historical data and show a notably larger labor force shortfall in the post-pandemic period.

Publication
Coglianese, John, Seth Murray, and Christopher J. Nekarda (2025). “Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-XXX. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2025.
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