Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, …

Across The Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession

We develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs relate to these classes of economic activity.

Unemployment Rate Benchmarks

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment.

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics: The Role of Time Aggregation

Labor market flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 15--25 percent, but this time aggregation bias does not meaningfully affect the cyclicality of gross flows or hazard rates.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Current Population Survey: Assessing the Cyclical Bias of Geographic Mobility

Cyclicality in geographic mobility does not significantly affect labor market dynamics measured in the Current Population Survey.

Weekly Time Series of the U.S. Labor Market

The monthly Current Population Survey overstates employment-to-employment transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical, resulting in an acyclical total separation rate.

The Cyclicality of Worker Flows: New Evidence from the SIPP

Total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical.