Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, …
This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment.
We use matched individual-level CPS data to study the decline in middle-wage routine occupations during the last 40 years, and determine how the associated labor market flows have evolved. The decline in employment in these occupations can be …
The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.
Monthly updates of the LMCI were discontinued on August 3, 2017
The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models.