Labor Market

Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

This paper constructs harmonized estimates of population and labor force statistics that smooth out discontinuities in published BLS statistics stemming from annual population estimate updates.

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, …

Across The Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession

We develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs relate to these classes of economic activity.

Across The Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession

We develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs relate to these classes of economic activity.

Unemployment Rate Benchmarks

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment.

How Much Slack Remains in Resource Utilization?

This memo evaluates the extent of economic and labor market slack in mid-2014 by comparing the FRB staff's unemployment rate gap with a variety of alternative measures and indicators.

Assessing Conditions in the Labor Market

Although the unemployment rate is the arguably the best single summary indicator of the labor market, it is important to consider additional indicators for a comprehensive assessment of current conditions and the future trajectory.

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics: The Role of Time Aggregation

Labor market flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 15--25 percent, but this time aggregation bias does not meaningfully affect the cyclicality of gross flows or hazard rates.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Current Population Survey: Assessing the Cyclical Bias of Geographic Mobility

Cyclicality in geographic mobility does not significantly affect labor market dynamics measured in the Current Population Survey.

Weekly Time Series of the U.S. Labor Market

The monthly Current Population Survey overstates employment-to-employment transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical, resulting in an acyclical total separation rate.