business cycles

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup

The markup of price over marginal cost increases in response to a positive shock to demand and TFP but decreases in response to an investment-specific technology shock. In contrast, how the markup is measured matters for its unconditional cyclicality.

Unemployment Rate Benchmarks

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment.

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics: The Role of Time Aggregation

Labor market flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 15--25 percent, but this time aggregation bias does not meaningfully affect the cyclicality of gross flows or hazard rates.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Current Population Survey: Assessing the Cyclical Bias of Geographic Mobility

Cyclicality in geographic mobility does not significantly affect labor market dynamics measured in the Current Population Survey.

Weekly Time Series of the U.S. Labor Market

The monthly Current Population Survey overstates employment-to-employment transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical, resulting in an acyclical total separation rate.