Unemployment

Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

This paper constructs harmonized estimates of population and labor force statistics that smooth out discontinuities in published BLS statistics stemming from annual population estimate updates.

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, …

Unemployment Rate Benchmarks

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment.

The Dynamics of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach

Using individual-level CPS data, we show that the decline in middle-wage routine occupations over the past 40 years is mainly due to decreased transitions into these jobs from non-participation and unemployment, driven by individuals' lower propensity to make such transitions rather than demographic shifts, and that this also significantly contributes to the recent rise in U.S. nonparticipation.

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.

How Much Slack Remains in Resource Utilization?

This memo evaluates the extent of economic and labor market slack in mid-2014 by comparing the FRB staff's unemployment rate gap with a variety of alternative measures and indicators.

Updating the Labor Market Conditions Index

Monthly updates of the LMCI were discontinued on August 3, 2017

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.

The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market

This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models.