Time Series

Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

This paper constructs harmonized estimates of population and labor force statistics that smooth out discontinuities in published BLS statistics stemming from annual population estimate updates.

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, …

The Dynamics of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach

Using individual-level CPS data, we show that the decline in middle-wage routine occupations over the past 40 years is mainly due to decreased transitions into these jobs from non-participation and unemployment, driven by individuals' lower propensity to make such transitions rather than demographic shifts, and that this also significantly contributes to the recent rise in U.S. nonparticipation.

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.

How Much Slack Remains in Resource Utilization?

This memo evaluates the extent of economic and labor market slack in mid-2014 by comparing the FRB staff's unemployment rate gap with a variety of alternative measures and indicators.

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.

Weekly Time Series of the U.S. Labor Market

The monthly Current Population Survey overstates employment-to-employment transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical, resulting in an acyclical total separation rate.

The Cyclicality of Worker Flows: New Evidence from the SIPP

Total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical.