Using individual-level CPS data, we show that the decline in middle-wage routine occupations over the past 40 years is mainly due to decreased transitions into these jobs from non-participation and unemployment, driven by individuals' lower propensity to make such transitions rather than demographic shifts, and that this also significantly contributes to the recent rise in U.S. nonparticipation.
Labor market flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 15--25 percent, but this time aggregation bias does not meaningfully affect the cyclicality of gross flows or hazard rates.
Total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical.