This paper constructs harmonized estimates of population and labor force statistics that smooth out discontinuities in published BLS statistics stemming from annual population estimate updates.
Using individual-level CPS data, we show that the decline in middle-wage routine occupations over the past 40 years is mainly due to decreased transitions into these jobs from non-participation and unemployment, driven by individuals' lower propensity to make such transitions rather than demographic shifts, and that this also significantly contributes to the recent rise in U.S. nonparticipation.
Continued cyclical improvement in the labor market will put downward pressure on involuntary part-time work, but secular trends may augur structurally higher part-time employment.
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models.
Labor market flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 15--25 percent, but this time aggregation bias does not meaningfully affect the cyclicality of gross flows or hazard rates.
Cyclicality in geographic mobility does not significantly affect labor market dynamics measured in the Current Population Survey.
The monthly Current Population Survey overstates employment-to-employment transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical, resulting in an acyclical total separation rate.