The Cyclicality of Worker Flows: New Evidence from the SIPP

Shegiru Fujita, Christopher J. Nekarda, Garey Ramey

February 2007

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Two line graphs showing the cross-correlations between unemployment at time t and job losses/hires at time t+i, comparing SIPP and CPS data series. Both the job loss and hires rates are countercylical (high positive correlation with the unemployment rate).

Cross correlations with the unemployment rate

Abstract

Drawing on CPS data, Fujita and Ramey (2006) show that total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical. They also find that total job loss and job loss hazard rates lead the business cycle, while total hiring and job finding rates trail the cycle. In the current paper we use information from the Survey on Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to reevaluate these findings. SIPP data are used to construct new longitudinally consistent gross flow series for U.S. workers, covering 1983–2003. The results strongly validate the Fujita-Ramey findings, with two important exceptions: (1) total hiring leads the cycle in the SIPP data, and (2) the job loss rate is substantially more volatile than the job finding rate at business cycle frequencies.

Type

Preprint

Publication

Fujita, Shigeru, Christopher J. Nekarda, and Garey Ramey (2007). “The cyclicality of worker flows: New evidence from the SIPP,” Working Paper 07-5. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, February 2007.