Using individual-level CPS data, we show that the decline in middle-wage routine occupations over the past 40 years is mainly due to decreased transitions into these jobs from non-participation and unemployment, driven by individuals' lower propensity to make such transitions rather than demographic shifts, and that this also significantly contributes to the recent rise in U.S. nonparticipation.
The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.
Monthly updates of the LMCI were discontinued on August 3, 2017
The labor market conditions index (LMCI), a dynamic factor model of 19 monthly indicators, appears to be a useful tool for assessing the change in labor market conditions based on a broad array of information.
Continued cyclical improvement in the labor market will put downward pressure on involuntary part-time work, but secular trends may augur structurally higher part-time employment.
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models.
Total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical.