Research

My research focuses on U.S. labor markets, macroeconomics, and their trends and cyclical interaction. I am interested in questions about labor market polarization, labor market flows, forecasting, as well as studying current labor market developments.

Journal Publications

The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market
with Regis Barnichon
Fall 2012
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp. 83–131.

Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending
with Valerie A. Ramey
January 2011
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(1), pp. 36–59.

Web Publications

The Who and How of Disappearing Routine Jobs
with Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, and Henry E. Siu
October 2, 2014
VoxEU

Updating the Labor Market Conditions Index
with Hess Chung and David Ratner
October 1, 2014
FEDS Notes

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
with Hess Chung, Bruce Fallick, and David Ratner
May 22, 2014
FEDS Notes

Why is Involuntary Part-Time Work Elevated?
with Tomaz Cajner, Dennis Mawhirter, and David Ratner
April 14, 2014
FEDS Notes

Working Papers

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
with Hess Chung, Bruce Fallick, and David Ratner
December 2014

The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach
with Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, and Henry E. Siu
July 2014

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup
with Valerie A. Ramey
November 2013

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics: The Role of Time Aggregation
June 2009

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Current Population Survey: Assessing the Cyclical Bias of Geographic Mobility
May 2009

Weekly Time Series of the U.S. Labor Market
December 2008

The Cyclicality of Worker Flows: New Evidence from the SIPP
with Shigeru Fujita and Garey Ramey
January 2007