Chris Nekarda: Economics » prediction market http://chrisnekarda.com Views expressed on this site are my own and do not reflect the view of the Federal Reserve System or its staff Mon, 26 Jul 2010 18:24:37 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc Prediction markets on the 2008 election http://chrisnekarda.com/blog/2008/09/prediction-markets-on-the-2008-election/ http://chrisnekarda.com/blog/2008/09/prediction-markets-on-the-2008-election/#comments Thu, 11 Sep 2008 01:07:49 +0000 Chris http://chrisnekarda.com/?p=134 Who do you think will win the 2008 Presidential election? Prediction markets, such as those at Intrade, have contracts on about anything you can imagine — e.g., Will the U.S. economy go into recession during 2008? Will United Financial to fail this year? Will the Higgs boson be observed before 2009? — including who will win in November. I am tracking 2 contracts, the probability that Barack Obama wins and the probability that John McCain wins.

These 2 series, along with their difference, can be found on this page.

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