Who do you think will win the 2008 Presidential election? Prediction markets, such as those at Intrade, have contracts on about anything you can imagine — e.g., Will the U.S. economy go into recession during 2008? Will United Financial to fail this year? Will the Higgs boson be observed before 2009? — including who will win in November. I am tracking 2 contracts, the probability that Barack Obama wins and the probability that John McCain wins.
These 2 series, along with their difference, can be found on this page.