Comments on: Gross flows on the campaign trail http://chrisnekarda.com/blog/2008/09/gross-flows-on-the-campaign-trail/ Views expressed on this site are my own and do not reflect the view of the Federal Reserve System or its staff Mon, 26 Jul 2010 18:23:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: knzn http://chrisnekarda.com/blog/2008/09/gross-flows-on-the-campaign-trail/comment-page-1/#comment-7 knzn Sat, 20 Sep 2008 04:11:19 +0000 http://chrisnekarda.com/?p=189#comment-7 I think there may be another important difference between the CPS and BED, besides the frequency. The BED, if I understand it correctly, measures at the establishment level, and does it by head counts at the beginning and end of the quarter. So if someone loses their job, but the same establishment hires someone else in a different job (or even in the same job, if someone was fired), this doesn't show up as a job loss. (Of course, this would also interact with the frequency issue, since there will be more of these "indirect replacements" during a full quarter than during a single month.) Since the CPS measures at the individual level rather than the establishment level, it will presumably recognize a job loss even if the person is immediately replaced. Regarding direct job-to-job transitions, if you want to measure the number of job losses, these should presumably not be counted, since they are usually quits rather than job losses (although in some cases a laid off employee finds a new job before the old one ends, but I'm not sure there would be any way to identify those cases with any data series). In that respect the BED probably overcounts job losses, because in cases where the employee was not replaced at the old establishment, the transition would show up as a job loss at the old establishment and a job gain at the new establishment, even if it is actually a quit at the old establishment. I think there may be another important difference between the CPS and BED, besides the frequency. The BED, if I understand it correctly, measures at the establishment level, and does it by head counts at the beginning and end of the quarter. So if someone loses their job, but the same establishment hires someone else in a different job (or even in the same job, if someone was fired), this doesn’t show up as a job loss. (Of course, this would also interact with the frequency issue, since there will be more of these “indirect replacements” during a full quarter than during a single month.) Since the CPS measures at the individual level rather than the establishment level, it will presumably recognize a job loss even if the person is immediately replaced.

Regarding direct job-to-job transitions, if you want to measure the number of job losses, these should presumably not be counted, since they are usually quits rather than job losses (although in some cases a laid off employee finds a new job before the old one ends, but I’m not sure there would be any way to identify those cases with any data series). In that respect the BED probably overcounts job losses, because in cases where the employee was not replaced at the old establishment, the transition would show up as a job loss at the old establishment and a job gain at the new establishment, even if it is actually a quit at the old establishment.

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